Forecasting the Onset of the Indian Monsoon

“This program harnesses the revolution in AI-based weather forecasting to predict the arrival of continuous rains, empowering farmers to plan agricultural activities with greater confidence and manage risks. We look forward to continuing to improve this effort in future years.”

“Seeing NeuralGCM at work in this impactful way is exactly what we envisioned when we released the model – it’s a great example of the progress we can make when we collaborate across AI experts, academia and domain experts. We’re excited to see how future applications of NeuralGCM unlock new and helpful insights for communities around the world.”

“Before this, I mostly relied on my own experience and local knowledge to know when the monsoon would arrive. The forecast about the arrival of the monsoon was accurate…I have increased trust in the forecast, and I will rely on the information shared by scientists in the future.”

“One of our goals is to make forecast data more accessible for all. We are really pleased that our AIFS model is being used in such a way to provide more accurate and timely weather forecasts which will help millions of farmers and other users that most need them.”

“Disseminating AI weather forecasts has an incredibly high return on investment, likely generating more than $100 for farmers for each dollar invested by the government. India is leading the way in using AI to improve people’s lives across many sectors, including agriculture.”

“We have been going through an AI-driven revolution since 2022 and AI models have shown promise for many one- to two-week forecasting applications. But their ability to predict complex phenomena—like the monsoon—was unclear, and frankly, unexpected. [In this project], we started with rigorous benchmarking. We had to understand the strengths and weaknesses of each model, and more importantly, match the model with the needs. That’s where AI forecasts have the power to be revolutionary because they are more accurate, faster, and easier to adapt.”

“Our idea is to follow India’s lead and take this all over the world—not just to farmers, but to others as they encounter climate impacts. AI is reframing how we think of weather forecasting and providing a critical tool as people make decisions about how to live with and adapt to climate change.”

“This approach of blending open-source AI models that were selected based on a rigorous benchmarking process, in this case Google’s NeuralGCM and the ECMWF’s AIFS, followed by bias correction with the IMD’s extensive gridded climate data, is key to generate accurate predictions. This is a new era where artificial intelligence and meteorological expertise converge to transform how we serve India’s farmers.”

“AI offers a huge opportunity for technological leapfrogging in forecasting, proving already to be more accurate for many types of weather forecast, and able to be easily expanded to everyone.”

“A key feature was working with farmers to zero in on their needs and what types of messages would be most useful to act upon. Even the most accurate forecast can fall flat if it’s not communicated clearly. This project showed the importance of co-designing messages with farmers.”

“This initiative is tremendously valuable because it centers specifically on the needs of farmers by providing tailored weather forecasts in easy to understand language and helps them make informed farming decisions.”

“This is what practical food security innovation looks like. It’s not just about new technology—it’s about combining research, government delivery systems, and farmer voices to ensure that timely, useful information reaches those who need it most.”