Forecasting the Onset of the Indian Monsoon

The onset of the Indian monsoon is a spectacular event, with rain expanding rapidly over the subcontinent to end a long season of heat and aridity, and patterns of wind reorganizing around half of Earth’s circumference. Advance knowledge of the date on which monsoon rains will start is of great importance to farmers, who strategize when to plant seeds and, sometimes, whether to devote resources to irrigation and hiring of additional labor.  Researchers at the University of Chicago’s Human-Centered Weather Forecasting (HCF) Initiative, the University of California Berkeley, and the University of Chicago Trust in India are using new advances in artificial intelligence (AI) with knowledge of monsoon dynamics to predict the onset of the rainy season for Indian farmers. Our interdisciplinary team of atmospheric scientists and AI experts has benchmarked a suite of the latest AI weather forecast models and traditional numerical weather prediction models, assessing their skill in an objective framework with metrics tailored to farmers’ needs. Working with a team of economists and social scientists, the forecasts will then be disseminated to Indian farmers in partnership with government agencies. This effort provides a template for using advances in AI and atmospheric science to help vulnerable populations adapt to weather shocks, ensuring that forecasts are rigorously validated and communicated.