About

Expanding access to weather forecasts in low- and middle-income countries.

Low- and middle-income countries have historically not had access to the type of accurate, real-time forecasting available in other parts of the world. As climate change makes the weather more unpredictable, this information is needed more than ever. At the same time, a revolution in weather forecasting, largely driven by AI, has found ways to generate high-quality forecasts at a fraction of the cost and time, and has even opened the door to tailoring forecasts for specific users.

The UChicago Institute for Climate and Sustainable Growth’s Human-Centered Weather Forecasts (HCF) Initiative leverages the power of artificial intelligence to evaluate and build weather forecasts that can target what citizens on the ground need to know. The team of climate scientists, AI experts and economists then work with low- and middle-income countries to disseminate forecasts, test dissemination strategies, refine based on user feedback, and scale them up. In doing so, the Initiative provides communities with an essential tool for climate adaptation.

The Initiative is supported by the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Growth’s Venture Fund.

Michael Kremer

2019 Nobel Laureate; Co-director, HCF

“Weather forecasts optimized for people’s specific needs have an incredible return on investment. The Human-Centered Weather Forecasts Initiative works with partners around the world to bring weather forecasting services to hundreds of millions of people.”

Pedram Hassanzadeh

Co-director, HCF

“The goal of this work is not only to develop better AI models and provide more people around the world with wider access to more accurate and tailored weather information, but also to strengthen global forecasting systems broadly, enabling organizations that disseminate forecasts to generate, evaluate, and improve their own forecasts. This will be most impactful through interdisciplinary collaborations, like this Initiative, that can bring the rapidly advancing theoretical work of AI and climate scientists out of the lab and out into the real world.”

Amir Jina

Co-director, HCF

“We’re combining tailored weather forecasts with strategic partnerships and a user-focused approach that is often missing in forecast science. In not only providing better forecasts but refining them based on user feedback, we’re working with governments to provide citizens with actionable climate information and ensuring they have the tools to adapt and thrive in an increasingly uncertain environment.”

What We Do

Benchmarking and Model Development

We work with tech companies, academia, and others to push AI to its limits to deliver tailored forecasts that can improve human lives.

Large-Scale Dissemination

We work with partners to help them disseminate tailored weather forecasts, taking a user-focused approach.

Assessing Impact, User Experience

For weather messages to be helpful, users need to understand them. We evaluate what worked, and what didn't.

Forecaster Capacity Building

We work with low- and middle-income countries to strengthen their AI-driven weather forecasting capabilities.

Leadership

Scholar

Pedram Hassanzadeh

Associate Professor, Geophysical Sciences and Computational and Applied Math; Director, AI for Climate Initiative
Scholar

Amir Jina

Assistant Professor, Harris School of Public Policy
Scholar

Michael Kremer

University Professor in Economics, the College, and the Harris School of Public Policy; Director of the Development Innovation Lab; Faculty Director, Development Economics Center at the University of Chicago

AI Weather Forecasts: Impact and Cost Effectiveness

The secretariat of the global Innovation Commission on Climate Change, Food Security and Innovation, based at the UChicago Development Innovation Lab, reviewed evidence on a range of innovations for evidence of impact and cost effectiveness and selected provision of AI weather forecasts among a small set of priority innovations. They found that procuring regional monsoon onset forecasts covering 12 countries with 260-305 million farming families in Africa is estimated to cost $23 million, while generating more than a hundred times as large benefits for farmers.

A Model for the Future that Builds Off the Past

The Initiative’s work builds off the University of Chicago’s long history of pioneering economic thinking to tackle major societal challenges, as well as the lesser known advances in weather forecasting and climate modeling.